Bitcoin shed 14% in seven days, sliding to ranges not seen since February, as a convergence of institutional outflows, leverage liquidations, geopolitical strain, and a shock sale from Technique rattled digital asset markets.
But Commonplace Chartered’s international head of digital belongings analysis, Geoff Kendrick, instructed purchasers the bear market could also be in its last phases — and that the low is “virtually in.”
“I feel after we look again on the finish of 2026 with BTC at $100k… we’ll say this was the shopping for zone all of us wished,” he wrote.
Bitcoin traded round $63,739 on Wednesday, down from a 24-hour excessive of $67,416.50, after touching a session low close to $61,463 — the primary time it breached that threshold for the reason that February crash. The decline positioned BTC roughly 51% under its all-time excessive of $126,277, set in October 2025.
The set off that broke market confidence got here from a Monday SEC submitting. Technique disclosed the sale of 32 Bitcoin between Could 26 and Could 31, producing roughly $2.5 million at a mean worth of $77,135 per coin.
The transaction represented the agency’s first internet discount of its Bitcoin holdings in years — a break from co-founder Michael Saylor’s well-known “by no means promote” posture . The sale was executed to fund dividend obligations on Technique’s STRC most popular shares, which carry an annual variable dividend of 11.5%.
The market response was sharp. Bitcoin fell under $72,000 the identical day because the SEC submitting. Technique’s personal inventory dropped close to 6%, and STRC shares traded round $94 .
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording a 13 consecutive day streak of internet outflows — the longest run for the reason that merchandise launched in early 2024. Whole withdrawals reached roughly $3.45 billion throughout that stretch. The week ending Could 29 alone noticed $1.42 billion in internet outflows, the third-largest weekly withdrawal on document.
For the complete month of Could, cumulative spot ETF outflows reached $2.30 billion, making it the worst month of 2026.
Kendrick’s three bitcoin pillars
Towards this backdrop, Kendrick laid out three causes he believes the market is close to a flooring.
First, Technique’s conduct in 2022 presents a precedent. When the agency final bought Bitcoin in December of that yr, it bought greater than it bought two days later. Kendrick stated he expects the identical sample to repeat — with a possible buyback of as much as 100 instances the 32 BTC bought.
A confirmed buy as early as subsequent Monday would, in his view, function a tentative sign that the low is in.
Second, spot ETF holdings have held up higher than feared. The cumulative internet influx since inception stays at $54.2 billion — proper the place it stood earlier within the yr. Whole BTC held by the 11 U.S.-listed funds sits at roughly 674,000 BTC, down from a peak close to 682,000 however broadly unchanged in structural phrases.
“This tells me that ETF holdings are extra structurally sturdy than I had feared in February,” Kendrick stated.
Third, the pool of leveraged longs out there for liquidation is smaller than in prior drawdowns. Bitcoin futures bets value $1.5 billion have been liquidated by exchanges throughout the present sell-off, a determine in keeping with January’s.
With BTC already underperforming equities by means of 2026, compelled promoting danger has diminished.
Macro Headwinds Persist
Kendrick’s long-term targets stay $100,000 for Bitcoin by year-end.
