The whole lot You Must Know

Key Takeaways

One is a proposed gentle fork referred to as BIP-110. The opposite is a deliberate laborious fork referred to as eCash, backed by Drivechain architect Paul Sztorc. They share a considerably related timeframe. They don’t share a mechanism, a function, or a threat profile. Here’s a full breakdown of what each is, how Bitcoin’s historical past informs what occurs subsequent, and what holders ought to truly do.

Gentle Forks and Exhausting Forks, Defined Merely

Bitcoin’s guidelines can change in two structurally alternative ways.

A gentle fork tightens the prevailing guidelines. It’s backward-compatible, that means nodes that don’t improve can nonetheless see the brand new blocks as legitimate, even when the brand new guidelines reject some transactions that outdated guidelines would have accepted. Gentle forks activate when sufficient of the community adopts them, and in a clear activation, the chain stays unified.

A tough fork loosens or adjustments the foundations in a manner that isn’t backward-compatible. Nodes that don’t improve will reject blocks from nodes that did, and vice versa. If the community doesn’t transfer collectively, it splits into two separate chains with two separate property. The 2017 Bitcoin Money ( BCH) cut up is the clearest instance. Ethereum Basic ( ETC), born from the 2016 DAO fork, is one other.

That distinction is why BIP-110 is technically nonetheless a gentle fork, even with actual cut up threat connected to it, and why eCash is a tough fork by design, not accidentally.

BIP-110: What It Really Adjustments

BIP-110, additionally referred to as the Lowered Knowledge Momentary Softfork, was authored by Dathon Ohm. It targets the form of knowledge embedding utilized by Ordinals, inscriptions, and BRC-20-style tokens. The rule set consists of a number of particular restrictions. New scriptPubKeys above 34 bytes grow to be invalid, besides OP_RETURN outputs as much as 83 bytes. Knowledge pushes and witness gadgets above 256 bytes grow to be invalid. Spending undefined witness or Tapleaf variations is blocked. Taproot annexes and outsized management blocks are restricted, together with sure Tapscript opcodes like OP_SUCCESS, OP_IF and OP_NOTIF.

The proposal grandfathers UTXOs created earlier than activation, so cash that exist already can nonetheless transfer beneath the outdated guidelines. It’s additionally designed to be momentary. The active_duration written into the spec runs about one yr, expiring mechanically slightly than changing into a everlasting a part of Bitcoin’s consensus guidelines.

Activation makes use of a modified BIP9 deployment with a 55% signaling threshold, effectively above the 95% bar utilized in previous gentle forks however nonetheless requiring broad miner buy-in. There’s no time-based timeout. The spec units a most activation top close to Sept. 1, 2026, and features a necessary signaling window simply earlier than lock-in, anticipated to start round block 961,632, roughly Aug. 8. Blocks that don’t sign throughout that window get rejected by implementing nodes, which ensures lock-in no later than block 963,648 and rule activation at 965,664, in keeping with the proposal’s personal textual content.

The Signaling Paradox

Right here’s the place issues get complicated for anybody following the numbers. Public miner signaling for BIP-110 has been low. BGeometrics knowledge confirmed every day signaling at 2% to three% in early June. Cumulative signaling was round 0.42% by means of July 2, out of 9,066 blocks tracked since Could 1. Over the previous few days, it has grown increased with an general charge of 0.83%. Node-level figures inform an inconsistent story too.

Picture supply: bip110.org/monitor on July 6, 2026, at 7:44 a.m. Jap time.

Early estimates put reachable- node signaling close to 2.38%, whereas a separate measurement utilizing a broader definition of “all identified nodes” put the quantity nearer to 14% to 23%. It has been argued that public node counts could be inflated by measurement methodology and even low cost Sybil-style duplication, they usually could not mirror actual financial weight anyway.

Coin Dance node summary. — Picture supply: Coin Dance Bitcoin nodes abstract as of July 6, 2026.

Low signaling doesn’t imply low threat. Cut up threat isn’t solely about right now’s proportion. It’s about what occurs if miners, exchanges, wallets, and enormous holders disagree as soon as the mandatory-signaling window truly arrives in August. A number of onlookers imagine BIP-110 is a gentle fork with an elevated threat of a brief or persistent chain cut up exactly as a result of it’s contested. That’s the paradox: seen help seems to be skinny, however the mechanism nonetheless creates an actual coordination occasion with the potential for disruption.

X sentiment reveals the talk cut up alongside acquainted traces. Supporters, usually operating Knots software program, body BIP-110 as a correction to incentives distorted by prior relay-policy adjustments, and level to simulations suggesting the foundations might filter a significant share of non-monetary transactions whereas preserving all identified monetary use circumstances. Luke Dashjr has defended it as a restoration of the protocol slightly than new censorship.

Critics counter that policy-level filtering doesn’t belong in consensus, that the low threshold raises cut up odds in methods previous gentle forks averted, and that BIP-110 units a precedent for future contentious adjustments. Be aware that publication of a BIP inside Bitcoin’s BIPs repository is an archival step, not proof of ecosystem settlement, a distinction the repository itself makes express.

eCash: A Deliberate, Separate Chain

Paul Sztorc’s eCash undertaking isn’t attempting to vary Bitcoin from inside. It’s constructing a brand new chain that exists whether or not or not Bitcoin’s present infrastructure acknowledges it. The cut up is scheduled at Bitcoin block 964,000, with estimates pointing to Aug. 21 round 15:00 UTC. Present bitcoin holders would obtain an equal eCash stability at that snapshot, and a coin-splitter device is reportedly deliberate to separate the 2 property afterward.

The chain’s core addition is Drivechain performance, constructed on BIP-300 and BIP-301. BIP-300 describes hashrate escrows, and BIP-301 describes blind merged mining, mechanisms that permit Bitcoin-like sidechains function with a unique safety mannequin. Supplies tied to the launch describe a number of sidechains deliberate as dwell or proposed at activation.

As a result of eCash doesn’t want Bitcoin’s approval to exist, the actual open query isn’t whether or not it launches. It’s whether or not exchanges listing it, whether or not wallets construct protected tooling round it, and whether or not it attracts sufficient participation to matter as soon as it’s dwell.

How Wallets and Exchanges Dealt with Previous Forks

Bitcoin has been by means of contentious splits earlier than, and the historic report presents a reasonably clear view of how main service suppliers have a tendency to reply.

In prior fork occasions, pockets customers have been usually informed that their unique cash would stay protected, however that warning was wanted earlier than shifting property on competing chains. A chief concern is replay threat, the place a transaction on one chain could possibly be copied onto one other if the cut up lacked correct protections. As soon as replay safety was in place throughout prior forks and the competing community confirmed sufficient stability, some suppliers added help, whereas others stayed on the sidelines.

Three airdrop outcomes if the chain splits. — This infographic illustrates what usually occurs if a blockchain cut up creates a brand new asset that’s distributed to present bitcoin holders. Individuals who don’t personal bitcoin on the time of the cut up obtain nothing, whereas those that preserve bitcoin on an alternate could or could not obtain the brand new asset as a result of help relies upon solely on that alternate’s insurance policies. Those that management their very own non-public keys in a non-custodial pockets are positioned to say the brand new asset, offered the brand new chain implements efficient replay safety that enables each property for use safely.

Massive exchanges have usually taken a extra cautious strategy. Quite than instantly recognizing each side of a cut up, they’ve paused deposits and withdrawals, watched which chain attracted extra hashpower and confirmations, and waited for indicators that the community was not struggling main reorganizations. In some circumstances, help for the weaker chain arrived solely later, and typically solely as withdrawal help slightly than full buying and selling.

The broader sample is constant throughout a number of fork cycles. Pause first. Let a dominant chain emerge. Restore providers selectively as soon as replay and reorganization dangers fade. Minority chains, when supported in any respect, are likely to arrive late, with restricted performance and no assure of long-term alternate backing.

Why 2026 Is a Totally different Setting

The 2017 fork wars occurred in a market that was virtually solely retail and self-custodial. That’s not true. IBIT, Blackrock‘s Ishares Bitcoin Belief exchange-traded fund (ETF), reported $44.95 billion in internet property as of July 2, 2026. Technique reported holding 847,363 bitcoin as of June 5.

IBIT’s SEC-filed prospectus states the belief will completely and irrevocably abandon incidental rights to forked or airdropped property except a future SEC rule change permits in any other case. Meaning a big share of institutional bitcoin publicity structurally is not going to cross by means of both fork, no matter what occurs onchain. Coinbase has additionally mentioned its custody product traditionally helps extra fork property than its retail alternate does, which implies institutional and retail dealing with of the identical occasion can diverge in observe.

For BIP-110, that institutional layer raises the stakes of a disorderly cut up past retail wallets alone, touching ETF pricing, custody attestations, and creation and redemption operations. For eCash, the alternative dynamic applies. If a big share of bitcoin sits behind wrappers that structurally can’t cross by means of the brand new asset, eCash might launch with much less cellular financial participation than a retail-driven fork would have had in 2017.

What Self-Custody Holders Ought to Really Do

For BIP-110, there’s no new asset to say in a clear activation, so the related dangers are compatibility and settlement confusion if the August window turns disorderly. Holders utilizing specialised Taproot constructions or miniscript wallets ought to affirm compatibility forward of the necessary signaling window.

For eCash, self-custody earlier than the snapshot is the one dependable approach to protect the choice of holding the brand new asset, since exchanges and ETF wrappers could select to not credit score it in any respect. Anybody contemplating a declare ought to anticipate verified pockets help and confirmed replay safety slightly than dashing on day one, following the identical warning a slew of companies utilized in 2017.

What Occurs Subsequent

The essential classifications aren’t in dispute. BIP-110 is a gentle fork. eCash is a deliberate laborious fork. What stays open, as of July 6, 2026, is operational: whether or not BIP-110’s signaling stays low into August, whether or not any main mining swimming pools or exchanges shift place, whether or not eCash launches with verifiable replay safety, and which custodians or wrappers select to help, ignore, or legally disclaim no matter comes out of both occasion.