Bitcoin value held a razor-thin vary between $76,000 and $77,000 on Monday, recording only a -0.05% change at $76,797.74 whereas the broader crypto market buckled underneath iran geopolitical stress.
Over $300 million in crypto positions have been liquidated in 24 hours, in response to knowledge from Coinglass, with lengthy merchants absorbing the majority of these losses. The catalyst was blunt: President Trump posted on Reality Social that he had directed U.S. troops to organize for a “full, giant scale assault” on Iran if an appropriate deal isn’t reached, after delaying a deliberate Tuesday strike on the request of Gulf leaders.
BREAKING: President Trump says he has known as off a US “Navy assault” on Iran which was scheduled for tomorrow after leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE known as him and requested him to “maintain off.”
Trump has instructed the US Navy to “be ready to go ahead with a… pic.twitter.com/OQbBYuEP5u
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) Could 18, 2026
The central query now could be whether or not Bitcoin can maintain its present assist zone-or whether or not the subsequent leg down is already loading.
The Crypto Worry & Greed Index slipped into “Excessive Worry” territory, a studying that traditionally marks both a capitulation ground or the start of a deeper breakdown-context issues enormously right here.
Buying and selling quantity on Bitcoin surged 30% over the prior 24 hours, which sounds bullish on the floor however in a sideways market usually indicators indecision somewhat than conviction.
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Can Bitcoin Worth Maintain $76,500 Amid Iran Information, Or Is a Drop to $65,900 Subsequent?
Bitcoin’s present construction is fragile however not but damaged. The $76,000–$77,000 band has change into the battleground, with analysts at CryptoQuant figuring out $65,900–$70,500 because the projected vary for this cycle’s backside, utilizing the Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator-a instrument that maps how lengthy totally different teams of holders have been sitting on their cash to determine market peaks and troughs.
“If $70,500 holds, we’ll slowly grind out a backside within the higher vary. If it breaks, we’ll have to re-evaluate decrease assist buildings,” CryptoQuant analyst said. Individually, market commentators have warned {that a} day by day shut beneath $75,000 may speed up a transfer towards $60,000, suggesting the subsequent thousand {dollars} of draw back carries outsized psychological weight.
Studying the Bitcoin Backside through HODL Waves
“Our predicted value vary for this cycle’s backside is $65.9K–$70.5K. If $70.5K holds, we’ll slowly grind out a backside within the higher vary.” – By Sunny Mother
Full evaluation ⤵️https://t.co/rnE3CrI990 pic.twitter.com/bUebkCmoRw
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) Could 18, 2026
On-chain knowledge provides a counterpoint to the bearish tape. On-chain analytics agency Santiment famous that wallets holding no less than 100 BTC have risen 11.2% year-over-year, climbing from 18,191 to twenty,229 wallets-each representing no less than $7.7 million in holdings at present costs.
“Traditionally, rising whale pockets counts are considered as an indication that key stakeholders nonetheless believe in Bitcoin’s future worth and shortage,” Santiment said. That’s not a value catalyst by itself, but it surely does counsel the smart-money cohort is accumulating into weak spot somewhat than exiting.
If Bitcoin defends $75,000 on a day by day shut, open curiosity resolves to the upside, and a de-escalation within the Iran scenario triggers a reduction rally again towards $82,000–$85,000.
Nonetheless, a break beneath $70,500 invalidates the present cycle backside thesis and opens the door to CryptoQuant’s decrease goal of $65,900, possible triggered by both renewed Iran escalation or a broader risk-off wave hitting equities.
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